A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
