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This surely should not continue. It makes no rational sense that it persists. And yet, it does.

A Historic Triumph Defying Expectations

Aston Villa entered the weekend's Premier League clash at Chelsea looking to equal a historic record of 11 consecutive wins, matching runs set in the distant past. For much of the match, achieving it seemed highly unlikely, as Chelsea dominated proceedings, took the lead, and might have added several more. However, Chelsea are frailty when ahead, especially at home, while Villa now possess a baffling habit of securing away victories from losing positions.

First, Ollie Watkins equalised, the ball ricocheting in off his shin and the post after his initial shot was blocked by Robert Sánchez. Subsequently, he secured the winner with a precise header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the campaign. Watkins might feel a bit of luck was due, and it's undeniable the equalizing goal had a significant element of luck. Currently, however, Lady Luck seems to be favoring Villa.

The Statistics Of an Unlikely Run

The last nine of these eleven straight wins have been by a solitary goal. They have managed a clean sheet in just one of those matches. Their expected goals (xG) have been better in just six of those encounters, and in a couple of those, the margin was 0.2 or less. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This pattern seems unsustainable, but observers have been claiming that for some time, and Villa keep on winning. The central question is whether their outcomes will finally match their displays or if their level of play can rise to match the results.

This should not be possible, but everyone has been saying that for a while and Villa continue winning.

A Core Characteristic: Belief

Coming from behind is not just a feature of this season. Over the past three seasons, no team has won more points from losing positions than Villa's fifty-four; 18 of those have been secured this season, 50% more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have scored 9 goals. Two important observations can be made about Villa under their manager.

• First, they possess a deep-rooted self-belief that means no deficit ever feels insurmountable. This is, to an extent, a virtuous cycle: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they are convinced they can do it again.
• Second, Emery has proven exceptionally adept at changing games with his substitutions.

The Emery Effect

While Chelsea won the xG battle 2.1 to 1.4, Villa were the dominant force from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple change. Watkins came on for Donyell Malen, who had found it difficult with limited service. Immediately, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's runs in behind created issues. Onana and Jadon Sancho also entered, bolstering the midfield and adding the width they had eschewed earlier.

The Blues registered ten attempts to Villa's zero before the substitutions; following them, Villa had eleven opportunities to Chelsea's 4. By the end, Villa were in control and could have won more comfortably. Not for the first time, Chelsea boss Maresca seemed unable to respond as the game turned against him; the impression remains that he is better at implementing a game plan with preparation time than adapting on the fly.

Individual Brilliance

Villa have also developed a welcome habit of players producing moments of sensational quality to turn games. Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him shifting the ball onto his right foot and curling a finish home has become a seasonal theme. It was the winger who changed the game from the bench at Leeds. The striker changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The contributions of defenders like Ezri Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were key. Right now, it's not always the whole side playing brilliantly, but sufficient players within it delivering to secure the victories.

What Comes Next?

Will they be able to maintain this run? They now sit three points behind the league leaders, and as the season nears its midway point, they have to be considered as part of the title race, certainly more so than teams like Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. Tuesday's away game at Arsenal will be a significant examination of that claim. Villa beat Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG forty percent higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this season.

The Gunners have assembled their own run of narrow victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being entirely convincing. Tuesday will be a test for both teams – and if Villa secure a twelfth game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to deny their title credentials.