Foreign Office Advised Regarding Armed Intervention to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed papers reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military action to remove the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Show Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials considered options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential courses of action.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Ineffective

Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the documents included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military intervention would cause heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we judge that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document adds: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.