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Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to host the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the top if his administration led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.