Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
