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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest upset.

Yet the current field is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical year!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still